Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.946041 13.967484 16.182162 18.782648 21.746218 25.011898 28.876270
2024-10-20 8.622639 11.313097 14.561769 18.745371 23.959083 30.208977 38.231002
2024-10-27 6.559244 9.518557 13.404574 18.814563 26.073243 35.387595 48.139851
2024-11-03 5.593133 8.841393 13.417630 20.210567 29.885177 42.989889 61.861336
2024-11-10 4.756532 8.125586 13.181199 21.123198 33.036945 49.941401 75.349806
2024-11-17 4.078602 7.483661 12.895951 21.842580 35.895689 56.663458 89.059741
2024-11-24 3.359121 6.613567 12.085458 21.585733 37.176959 61.117093 99.778182
2024-12-01 2.698285 5.699009 11.031969 20.744639 37.371216 63.849515 108.031116
2024-12-08 2.201361 4.974895 10.171834 20.073080 37.701798 66.736682 116.655753
2024-12-15 1.902880 4.571768 9.815446 20.212851 39.374211 71.870213 129.201575
2024-12-22 1.603110 4.100378 9.248453 19.873534 40.136558 75.505676 139.503106
2024-12-29 1.486087 4.002387 9.397597 20.899864 43.447028 83.717357 158.056459
2025-01-05 1.304021 3.727347 9.162002 21.182079 45.483269 90.012968 174.061318
2025-01-12 1.136908 3.452530 8.886414 21.354099 47.342823 96.179546 190.380204
2025-01-19 0.993047 3.202526 8.623778 21.515414 49.193546 102.477135 207.406112
2025-01-26 0.955062 3.228623 9.003880 23.121206 54.123714 114.914066 236.516887
2025-02-02 0.886740 3.153251 9.127343 24.162886 57.975548 125.562066 262.983514
2025-02-09 0.813619 3.045885 9.153057 24.978543 61.417549 135.649541 289.025349
2025-02-16 0.700374 2.784455 8.737940 24.691458 62.428351 140.978546 306.246753
2025-02-23 0.578769 2.459317 8.091777 23.744698 61.860299 143.048701 317.197548
2025-03-02 0.483207 2.192504 7.554109 22.988034 61.630247 145.767590 329.574815
2025-03-09 0.429283 2.059925 7.378333 23.145730 63.546026 153.121968 351.778767
2025-03-16 0.367876 1.878317 7.020545 22.763202 64.122138 157.632551 368.389526